Representatives from some of Canada’s largest mortgage lenders say the housing market has held up far better than expected this year. Borrowers have largely adjusted to higher rates, and lenders expect brokers to capture a growing share of the market as demand normalizes.
Speaking at the Mortgage Professionals Canada’s National Conference in Ottawa, senior executives from First National, Scotiabank, CMLS Financial, MCAP and BMO described 2025 as a year of resilience, not retreat, marked by disciplined borrowers, balanced regional performance and early signs of renewed confidence.
“There’s been no renewal cliff,” said Jason Ellis, president and CEO of First National. “None of us up here have seen any evidence of a collapse. The housing market has held together, and arrears are less than 15 basis points.”
Brian Carey, executive vice-president and COO of MCAP, emphasized keeping perspective. He noted that MCAP expects over $20 billion in residential mortgage activity this year, and more than $30 billion across all business lines. “The residential mortgage market in Canada is $2.7 trillion today,” he said. “If we go back 10 years, it was about $1.7 trillion. So if you look over that period of time, it’s grown quite nicely.”
Carey added that the picture varies widely across the country, with some regions continuing to show strength while others still struggling.
“If I were to look at Alberta, the Prairies and the Maritimes, the market has actually been doing okay,” he added. “Prices have continued to go up in those markets because they didn’t peak out like they did in 2021 and 2022 in Toronto and Vancouver.”
Tracy Gomes, senior vice-president of real estate secured lending at Scotiabank, said clients are making disciplined choices as they adjust to a higher-rate environment.
“Aside from housing itself, the mortgage market was great,” she said. “We had a lot of renewals coming up for our borrowers this year, and so that was a very healthy switch and refinance market for anybody who’s in the mortgage lending business.”
Reflecting on the year’s broader policy changes, moderator Mary Putnam, senior vice-president of sales and marketing at Canada Guaranty, said this year’s federal mortgage rule changes have made a noticeable difference in improving affordability and giving buyers greater flexibility.
Key data from Canada Guaranty’s portfolio:
- 56% of new high-ratio originations this year opted for a 30-year amortization.
- 46% of those borrowers would not have qualified for the same home at 25 years.
- 3.5% of insured volume now exceeds $1 million, following the new $1.5-million cap.
- 64% of new high-ratio insured business originates through the broker channel.
Putnam said the changes have helped bring more balance to the market. “It gave first-time homebuyers an opportunity to buy in a rational process where for many years it was very hard,” she said, noting that many buyers previously felt pressured to waive conditions before securing approvals. “So that has made a big, big difference.”
Lenders see a maturing cycle, and a stable path ahead
Panelists agreed the market has entered a steadier phase, with borrowers adapting, arrears remaining low and brokers playing a central role in guiding clients through changing conditions.
Here’s a look at some of the standout moments and insights from MPC’s lender panel.
On arrears and borrower resilience
- Jason Ellis, First National: “There’s been no renewals cliff… none of us up here have seen any evidence of a collapse. The housing market has held together, and arrears are less than 15 basis points.”
- Andrew Gilmour, CMLS Financial: “With the renewal wave… clients that were at 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%, going into stuff that’s 250 basis points higher… the Canadian consumer continues to meet their debt obligations.”
On rate trends and product mix
- Jason Ellis, First National: “We’re almost certainly going to see one more cut—maybe in October or December—and then that’s it. We’ve got a normally shaped curve, it’s not inverted, and a normal curve is our friend right now.”
- Ellis: “Our residential borrowers have this terrible habit of picking the wrong product at the wrong time. In 2021, when the five-year fixed was about 1.65%, more than 60% of borrowers chose adjustable rate.”
- Amir Tehrani, BMO: “Right now, we’re seeing probably like 30% of production going to variable rate. The 3-year was very popular; [but] it’s becoming less popular. We’re seeing a gradual shift to 5-year fixed, but variable rate is still very much in people’s minds.”
On policy changes and affordability
- Tracy Gomes, Scotiabank: said the new federal rule allowing 30-year amortizations for insured new construction has had a clear impact on buyer behaviour. “It certainly made a huge difference,” she said. “It was an important step in helping consumers with affordability. We saw a banner year; we were up 25% year-over-year in the insured space. Half of that took 30-year, and more than half of them didn’t need to take the 30 years. “In my view, that’s very sort of disciplined behaviour on the consumer side of lowering their payments, knowing that they can take advantage of the flexible payment options, and then bring bring that amortization back down when it’s convenient for them.”
- Andrew Gilmour, CMLS Financial: said recent policy changes are giving borrowers more flexibility to move up the credit spectrum over time. “Providing consumers with choice to graduate on the credit curve without penalizing them gives them options and flexibility,” he said. “Moving into a prime shop and getting a lower rate is a really good outcome.”
- Brian Carey, MCAP: “Municipal development fees… end up making, you know, upwards of 20% of the purchase price.” He added that Ontario alone has 440 municipalities, each with its own rules, and urged lower development charges and better coordination across governments to avoid policies working at cross-purposes.
On broker share and growth
- Andrew Gilmour, CMLS Financial: “If you look at England or Australia, broker share is closer to 75% [versus Canada’s ~33%]…We’re still playing catch-up, but there’s lots of true organic growth for brokers.”
- Tracy Gomes, Scotiabank: “At Scotia, we love having multiple channels so clients can access a mortgage where they want. Clients more and more are choosing a broker for the advice sophistication at a very key moment when you’re buying a house or doing a mortgage transaction. Broker business brings us new clients to Scotia—it’s great business for us, whether they’re first-time homebuyers or mid-career clients, because it’s an opportunity to start a long-term relationship.”
- Jason Ellis, First National: “As a guy who spent the better part of the last six months talking to private equity investors about the mortgage industry in Canada, a big part of the message was we have a housing market that grows year over year over year. And we are growing within that growing market. So there is a tailwind, and there’s a long way to go for brokers.”
On technology and AI
- Tracy Gomes, Scotiabank: “We’ve gone from pilots and experiments to real use cases. In the mortgage space, one of the big opportunities that we’re using AI for is generative AI for documentation and application review…so checking appraisals, checking purchase and sale agreements, checking trade lines and bureaus and all the application inputs so that you’re streamlining the accuracy and you’re spending more time on good judgment and the reasonability of the deal.”
- Andrew Gilmour, CMLS Financial: “We take the Iron Man or the Marvel character approach: there’s still a human underneath, but the suit super-powers our underwriters… AI is so much better at detecting fraud… you’ll start to see that stuff get auto-approved, or close to it.”
- Jason Ellis, First National: “If you’re not already using AI, you’d better be developing use cases. We work in a seasonal business, and if we can create capacity and scalability with these tools, it will be—and already is—revolutionary. If you’re not doing it, you’ll look over your shoulder in two and a half years and realize you’ve been left behind.”
On lender–broker operations
- Jason Ellis, First National: “If you want to help us help you, one of the most valuable and free options we give away is holding interest rates on pre-approvals and commitments. We usually give about 48 hours’ notice when rates are moving higher—so help us help you by getting your applications in as early as you can.”
- Amir Tehrani, BMO: “Another thing for us would be submitting documentation upfront. On our non-broker channels, we almost have 100% documentation upfront, so our systems are built that way. On the broker side, when documents come in last minute, fraud detection and other processes kick in—and every time a new document arrives, we may have to restart the whole process. My ask is to give us five, six, seven days if you can. There’s always going to be rush deals, but some brokers, we’re seeing a higher percentage of those last-minute submissions, which just slows the whole thing up.”
- Brian Carey, MCAP: “We spend almost $50 million a year on IT, just to put some context around that. The better that data is, the quicker we can get back to you and make a good decision.”
On consolidation and what’s next
- Andrew Gilmour, CMLS Financial: “For those that aren’t aware, Nesto acquired CMLS in June 2024. I was part of the deal team…we really felt like the Tetris pieces fit well together. We had a commercial business that was fully formed and they were in that space, they had great technology, we were both interested in the DPO (Depository Products Offering) space, and in general, we saw the residential broker market as a way that we could expand and expand rapidly.”
- Jason Ellis, First National: “First National will be transitioning back to a private company. On Wednesday, we’ll close our agreement with Birch Hill and Brookfield Private Equity. When we wake up Thursday morning, nothing will be any different — just a few different board members and a bit more hassle for me from a reporting perspective. But they are going to empower us with capital and technology and some great intellectual resources, but otherwise it’s business as usual at First National.”
Photo credits: Amy Godin Photography
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Last modified: October 24, 2025
