American Banker’s 2026 Predictions Report
American Banker’s 2026 Predictions report was fielded online during October and November of 2025 among 174 banking professionals who work across a variety of executive roles at banks, credit unions, neobanks and payments companies.
Top findings from the report
Results from the report are highlighted below using interactive charts. Mouse over each section for more detail, click on the chart labels to show or hide sections and use the arrows to cycle between chart views.
This item is the end of a series diving into new data from American Banker. Click the links below to read the other parts of the overall research.
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Nonbanks are vying for market share
Bankers are eyeing their nonbank competitors as credible threats in 2026.
Of the trends bankers expect will take effect in 2026, the top is nonbanks increasing their market share within the payments industry, with 30% of bankers certain this will happen and a further 59% who are highly confident of this outcome.
Most bankers (88%) also expect increased M&A activity in the banking industry. About 77% expect to see significant increases in banks entering the digital asset ecosystem and more than half (52%) anticipate the FDIC will provide nonbank payment entities with bank charters.
Understandably, these market shifts would bring a good deal of risk.
Sixty-two percent of respondents said nonbank companies gaining market share in the payments space was a major source of risk, and the same percentage predicted risk from the volume of banks entering the cryptocurrency and/or stablecoin industry. Fifty-seven percent saw risk in the FDIC issuing bank charters to nonbank payments companies and a separate 29% of bankers felt that increased M&A among financial institutions would pose a fair amount of risk to the larger system.
Last year saw the
Regulators under the Trump administration look more favorably on acquisitions than their counterparts under prior administrations did, experts with Piper Sandler said.
“I think the whole mindset is different, and the fruit of that is you’re seeing these deals get approved more and more quickly,” Stephen Scouten, an analyst at Piper Sandler, told American Banker.
Catherine Mealor, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, told American Banker that the push for shortened deal timelines also helped spur M&A volume.
“I think you have an administration that’s comfortable with M&A and pro-M&A, versus taking forever to close,” Mealor said. “The regulatory process is just a lot more accommodating to banks today.”
Key takeaway: Confidence is high that M&A will accelerate and nonbank companies will gain increased market share in the payments sector in 2026.
What are the biggest threats to banks in 2026?
Nonbank payments products like Block’s Cash App and PayPal are the No. 1 perceived threat to bankers in the coming year. Fifty-seven percent said these products are a huge to moderate threat, 32% said a small threat and 9% said no threat.
Nonbank mortgage companies were the No. 2 threat, with 50% of respondents citing these firms, followed by 38% who said the same for nonbank stablecoin issuers and 34% for credit unions.
The hierarchy was much the same when broken down by respondent classes, with nonbank payments companies remaining the top threat for national bankers (58%), midsize/regional bankers (46%), community bankers (62%) and credit unions (67%).
Looking at the track record of firms like PayPal over the course of last year, these worries aren’t totally unfounded.
PayPal launched ventures that aimed at growing in the cross-border payments and banking industries. These efforts include the interoperability between PayPal and Venmo’s apps through the
Agentic payments remain another core focus of
“Agentic commerce is the next phase,” Chriss told American Banker. “We’re making sure an [AI] agent can make payments, figure out where they are and find out what store is down the street that has what they want. Then make their purchases.”
Some respondents have adopted a less confrontational mindset when it comes to payments companies, with one saying “no bank is able to compete against the virality of mobile app payment providers” and the most viable solution is to “merely try to integrate them more effectively into our platform and ecosystem.”
For those yearning to retain customers, tactics range from prioritizing the importance of customer relationships to partnerships with third parties and repositioning bank platforms that work in concert with external apps so consumers don’t feel the need to swap.”Having a partnership with a third-party vendor not only helps us to remain competitive with these industry players, but opens the door to cross selling and engaging new clients,” one respondent said.
Key takeaway: Nonbank payments companies are eyed by bankers as their biggest threat in the year ahead.
M&A appetites on the rise among banks
M&A activity is off to a strong start in January, and predictions say that the regional banking market is the biggest opportunity for dealmakers in 2026.
Forty-one percent of respondents who said M&A activity will increase in 2026 identified the regional banking market as the top area for deals, followed by 32% for community banks, 11% for national banks and 7% each for global banks and credit unions. One percent selected nonbank entities and 1% was unsure.
This month, the $17 billion-asset Community Financial announced its
Key takeaway: Regional and community banks are prime targets for mergers and acquisitions.
