The volatility comes as markets react to U.S. tariffs, global economic risks, and a spike in investor anxiety—reflected in the VIX, also known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” which measures expected stock market volatility.
With the VIX now at its highest level since early 2020, market jitters are feeding into bond yields and credit spreads, which influence how quickly mortgage lenders adjust fixed rates.
The Government of Canada 5-year bond yield, a key benchmark for fixed mortgage rates, has bounced sharply from a recent low of 2.52% to 2.82%, continuing a choppy trend that’s made spring mortgage pricing harder to pin down.
Yet despite this bounce, mortgage strategist Dave Larock says fixed rates could still move lower. While some of the recent bond yield drop was offset by wider credit spreads tied to rising risk premiums, “that still leaves enough room for fixed mortgage rates to fall further from here,” he wrote this week.
In terms of the impact on advertised mortgage rates, he reiterated that lenders tend to “take the elevator when they raise rates and the stairs when they lower them.”
Variable-rate mortgages are also regaining popularity, even as variable-rate discounts have been shrinking.
According to Statistics Canada, nearly 40% of mortgage originations in January were variable-rate mortgages. That trend may continue, with most of the Big 6 banks forecasting at least one or two Bank of Canada rate cuts this year—bringing the policy rate down to between 2.00% and 2.25% by the end of 2025.
“I still think this makes sense for now,” noted analyst Ben Rabidoux. “Variable appears to be a good option for borrowers with financial wiggle room to manage payment fluctuations.”
All eyes now turn to the Bank of Canada’s next decision on Wednesday, April 16. Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a 25-bps cut, following Canada’s loss of 33,000 jobs in March, the first monthly decline in over three years.
Rabidoux notes that with roughly 60% of mortgages set to renew in the next 20 months—and many facing payment shocks of around 35%—the Bank of Canada still “has work to do.”
On top of the sizeable job losses in March, the broad market selloff over the past week is also adding to that pressure, notes Larock.
“I think the Bank will likely err on the side of cutting too much, rather than not enough,” he wrote. “I am reminded that the last time our country faced a severe economic shock, BoC Governor Poloz justified his actions by saying that ‘a firefighter has never been criticized for using too much water.’”
FSRA introduces new continuing education requirements
Ontario’s financial services regulator is implementing new mandatory Continuing Education (CE) requirements for all licensed mortgage agents and brokers. The goal is to raise the level of professionalism across the province’s mortgage brokering sector.
The CE program is divided into two categories: one focused on conduct, and another on technical knowledge and professional development. The deadline to complete the requirements is March 31, 2026.
FSRA will host two upcoming webinars to walk through the new requirements:
- April 23, 2025 – for principal brokers
- May 7, 2025 – for all agents and brokers
More information is available at www.fsrao.ca.
Residential renovation costs slowed in Q4, but Prairie provinces saw pressure persist
Renovation prices rose 0.5% in Q4 2024, the slowest pace since mid-2020, according to StatCan’s Residential Renovation Price Index.
While national cost growth eased, Alberta (+1.2%), Saskatchewan (+1.1%) and Regina (+1.8%) saw the steepest quarterly increases.
Regina led all 15 measured cities with a 1.8% quarterly increase in renovation costs, followed by Victoria (+1.6%) and Calgary (+1.4%). Quebec City saw no change, while Moncton (+0.1%) recorded the smallest positive growth.
Projects involving concrete, stonework, solar panels and fireplaces posted the biggest price jumps, StatCan noted.
Although skilled trade availability improved in much of Canada, persistent shortages in the Prairies continued to push up costs in the region. “Slowing activity, an improving labour market and easing material cost pressures all contributed to slower growth in renovation construction costs in the fourth quarter,” the agency said.
Highclere Capital partners with Minerva to boost AML compliance
Highclere Capital has partnered with Canadian RegTech firm Minerva to strengthen its Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know-Your-Customer (KYC) practices.
The collaboration will see Highclere adopt Minerva’s AI-powered platform, which delivers real-time risk assessments with 99% accuracy.
“Our AML, Risk, and Compliance program is built on a strong foundation of global sanctions principles and proactive fraud detection measures,” said Highclere President Paul Grewal, adding that the partnership will allow Highclere to “to identify suspicious accounts and potential threats before they arise.”
Minerva’s technology uses deep learning to analyze billions of data points across multiple languages, helping institutions automate and improve their compliance systems.
MCAN named to Waterstone’s list of Most Admired Corporate Cultures
MCAN Financial Group has been recognized as one of Canada’s Most Admired Corporate Cultures for 2025 by Waterstone Human Capital.
The annual award highlights organizations that demonstrate strong alignment between culture, vision, and performance.
“Our people are our greatest asset,” said Derek Sutherland, President and CEO of MCAN. “This recognition reflects their dedication to living our culture and driving shared success—for our team, clients, and communities.”
Waterstone’s selection emphasizes MCAN’s focus on embedding values like diversity and resilience into daily practices and leadership strategies.
Affordability gap widens across major Canadian cities
A new report highlights deepening affordability challenges for homebuyers in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, where median household incomes fall short by $121,000 and $95,000, respectively, to afford average-priced homes.
In contrast, Alberta cities such as Calgary and Edmonton offer income surpluses, with Edmonton leading at over $50,000.
Condos provide a more affordable alternative, but even these come with income gaps in markets like Vancouver and Toronto, according to the report from RATESDOTCA. Edmonton and Calgary again stand out, with condo affordability surpluses nearing $92,000 and $63,000.
The report also points to migration trends away from expensive cities and flags factors such as zoning, material costs, and labour shortages as key drivers of rising prices.
For many Canadians, the location of homeownership is increasingly being shaped by income potential and housing access—rather than preference alone.
Pessimism about the economy nears pandemic-era high: Nanos
The share of Canadians who believe the economy will worsen over the next six months has climbed to nearly 56%, according to the latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index—a level not seen since June 2020.
Overall consumer confidence dropped to 47.41 in late March, its lowest reading in a year. The Expectations Index, which reflects views on the economy and real estate, fell to 40.48, while the Pocketbook Index—tracking personal finances and job security—dipped slightly to 54.34.
Optimism about real estate is also slipping, with just 34% of Canadians expecting home prices to rise—down from over 40% earlier this year.
Mortgage snippets
- BCFSA outlines regulatory priorities through 2028: The B.C. Financial Services Authority has released its 2025/26 Regulatory Roadmap, highlighting its planned regulatory initiatives over the next three fiscal years.
The roadmap aims to increase transparency and help regulated entities prepare for upcoming consultations and implementation phases.
The initiatives are aligned with BCFSA’s broader service plan and focus on risk-based, proportionate regulation across the province’s financial sector. To view the full roadmap, visit: BCFSA Regulatory Roadmap.
- Mortgage arrears held steady in January: Canada’s national mortgage arrears rate held steady at 0.22% in January, with 11,131 mortgages three or more months past due, according to the Canadian Bankers Association. While unchanged from December, arrears have slowly risen from the pandemic low of 0.14%.
Saskatchewan again posted the highest arrears rate at 0.59%, followed by Manitoba (0.34%) and Alberta (0.30%). Arrears remained lowest in Quebec, Ontario, and B.C., each at 0.19%.
Next Steps: Mortgage industry career moves
“Next Steps” is a feature in our Mortgage Digests that highlights notable job changes and career advancements within the mortgage industry. If you have a job update to share, we welcome your submissions to keep the community in the loop.
Chris Turcotte named President of RMA/Broker One
Chris Turcotte has officially taken on the role of President at Real Mortgage Associates/Broker One.
He brings over eight years of experience as President of CENTUM Financial Group, where he led network-wide growth, strategic planning, and franchise development across Canada.
Working alongside CEO Ron De Silva, who continues to oversee brokerage operations, Chris will lead the charge in building RMA’s presence across Canada.
“We’re thrilled to welcome a leader of Chris’s calibre to the RMA/Broker One team,” said Gary Mauris, CEO of Dominion Lending Centres Group. “His deep industry experience, entrepreneurial mindset, and passion for broker success make him an excellent fit for our future.”
Amanda Carnevale joins Strive Aspire as Director of Business Development
Strive Aspire has welcomed Amanda Carnevale as its new Director of Business Development for the GTA and Ontario East.
With 17 years of mortgage industry experience, Amanda brings a strong background in residential lending, underwriting, and relationship management.
“I thrive in environments that encourage creativity and challenge the status quo, and Strive’s approach to pushing boundaries and embracing new ideas aligns perfectly with my professional goals,” Amanda said.
She most recently served as Brokerage Relationship Manager at CMI and previously held senior roles at Community Trust, 360Lending, and Equitable Bank. Her expertise spans both institutional and alternative lending, making her well-positioned to support brokers with a wide range of solutions.
Mohammad Daredia joins Highclere as Director of Credit Operations
Highclere has appointed Mohammad (Moh) Daredia as its new Director of Credit Operations.
With more than 18 years of experience across underwriting, credit management, and broker support, Moh brings deep operational expertise to the team following the lender’s recent launch.
His background includes senior roles at Strive, First National, Sagen, and ResMor Trust, with a strong track record of working closely with brokers to deliver sound credit decisions and responsive service.
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Last modified: April 11, 2025
